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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still