Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
