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Mounting concerns exist about the chance of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has provoked a intense verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in last year that his nation's sea access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed control of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the wish to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Claims

Amid continuous challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been confined to short statements on X from Information Minister the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on 16 September that attempts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Border

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the border areas between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has displayed completion events of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The leader of staff section of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the ruler terminated this agreement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle followed, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their common border, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Although this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a announcement that the hostilities was over – a action that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's previous civil war in the northern region.

Yet ties have later worsened anew.